At 20:20 Beijing time, OPEC monthly report came out, this oil report about crude oil after the market production and demand expectations judgment, very worthy of reference.
In general, OPEC’s monthly report is pessimistic.
The OPEC monthly report revised upward the global crude oil demand growth expectation in 2020 from -9.77 million barrels per day to -9.75 million barrels per day, maintained the global crude oil demand growth expectation in 2021 at 5.9 million barrels per day, and the global crude oil demand is expected to be 95.910 million barrels per day in 2021.
The monthly report noted that this year’s oil demand recovery will be below pre-pandemic levels, with new coronavirus variants, rising infection cases and a slow start to vaccination programs likely to overshadow the recovery at least in the first quarter of 2021.
The report came out with little short term volatility in both oils.
Let’s take a closer look at the contents of this monthly report.
In addition to Saudi Arabia, several oil-producing countries “blatantly” increased production
In terms of crude oil production, OPEC’s monthly report pointed out that according to secondary information, OPEC crude oil production increased by 280,000 barrels per day in December. Specifically.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production decreased by 0.2 million barrels per day in December, according to secondary sources.
UAE crude oil production increased by 63,000 bpd to 2.578 million bpd in December.
Iranian crude oil production increased by 2.0 mb/d to 2.002 mb/d in December.
Libya’s crude oil production increased by 136,000 bbl/d to 1.224 million bbl/d in December.
Iraq’s crude oil production increased by 76,000 b/d to 3.848 million b/d in December.
In non-OPEC countries, OPEC’s monthly report noted that non-OPEC producers’ supply declined by 2.5 million bpd year-on-year in 2020. net imports of U.S. petroleum products decreased by 286,000 bpd to -563,000 bpd in December 2020 compared to the previous round of statistics.
OPEC’s monthly report noted a slightly more optimistic outlook for U.S. shale gas supply as oil prices rise, with production expected to recover more in the second half of 2021. 2021 non-OPEC crude oil supply is expected to be 63.530 million b/d.
Also, although OECD crude oil inventories fell by 24.5 million barrels in November to 3.1 billion barrels, stocks are 163 million barrels above the 5-year average level.
In other data, OPEC’s monthly report noted that
China’s net imports of petroleum products increased by 1.304 million bpd to 11.104 million bpd in November 2020 from the previous round of statistics.
India’s net imports of petroleum products in November 2020 increased by 792,000 bbl/d to 4.396 million bbl/d from the previous round of statistics.
U.S. net imports of petroleum products in December 2020 decreased by 286,000 bpd to -563,000 bpd from the previous round.
Oil market outlook “fights”
In fact, just a day before the monthly report was published, on Wednesday, OPEC Secretary General Barkindo also commented on the oil market outlook, and his views differed from those revealed in this monthly report.
He noted that OPEC expects a strong rebound in the oil market in 2021 and that the worst is over in the oil market. OPEC maintains a cautiously optimistic view of the oil market. Saudi Arabia’s production cuts have helped us cope with low oil demand.
Of course, Barkindo also mentioned that the current state of the oil market remains relatively bad, with OECD oil inventories 160 million barrels above the 5-year average level.
He acknowledged that high oil inventories are a key issue in the imbalance of the oil market. OPEC+ is focused on helping to reduce inventories and must continue to dominate the oil market.
At the same time, Barkindo mentioned that OPEC+ will be flexible in responding to the oil supply of its members and need not worry about Iran’s oil production.
Other investment bank institutional views are optimistic about oil prices. Smallmore and Goldman Sachs raised their oil price expectations in their latest reports.
JPMorgan Chase raised its 2021 Brent crude oil price forecast from $50/barrel to $61/barrel and WTI crude oil price forecast from $47/barrel to $58/barrel.
Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude prices to reach $65/bbl this summer (last forecast was at the end of this year) and also expects crude spot appreciation to continue and implied volatility to decrease.
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