Xi Jinping coughs one after another during his speech in Shenzhen on October 14, 2020
Recently Xi Jinping was rumored to have undergone surgery for ill health, but CCP officials then denied the rumors through footage of Xi attending a rural work conference and a video meeting with Putin, especially when Xi delivered a New Year’s message via video on December 31, 2020. Some commentators argue that this still hardly covers up the various rumors of power struggles within the party. The rumor that Xi Jinping is critically ill and under the knife is certainly a rumor, but it is hard to rule out that this is also a way to “draw snakes out of holes” in Zhongnanhai.
According to an article by Zhang Yushao, a researcher and deputy secretary-general of the Taiwan Cross-Strait Policy Association, published in the January 4 issue of Taiwan’s Key Review, Xi Jinping’s health has become the focus of public opinion as he monopolizes key political power within the Communist Party after the 19th National Congress and the U.S.-China economic and trade war begins.
According to the article, the leader’s health has always been a sensitive issue in a centralized system, as it is often a prelude to large-scale bloody struggles in an environment where power operations and succession processes are not institutionalized under the rule of man.
Beginning on December 27, 2020, Twitter was abuzz with rumors that Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party, would undergo surgery for an intracranial aneurysm. Due to the critical state of affairs, a special crisis office has been set up. This, coupled with the fact that Xi had been caught by the media stumbling unsteadily while on a trip to France in March 2019 and frequently coughing during a speech in Shenzhen on a southern tour in October 2019, made the rumors even more surprising.
But official media reported that Xi still appeared at the Central Rural Work Conference on Dec. 28, and that he spoke with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin around 7 p.m. on the 28th. Xi then delivered his New Year’s message for 2021 on the last night of 2020.
According to the aforementioned article by Zhang Yushao, a researcher and deputy secretary-general of the Taiwan Cross-Strait Policy Association, many China studies experts now describe the CCP’s excessive concentration of power and lack of separation of powers and accountability as “poor decision-making,” questioning Xi’s ability and stamina to properly handle the issues that are pressing inside and outside China. This has led to constant clashes between the Jiang family of the past and Xi’s direct “Zhijiang New Army”, and between Xi and Premier Li Keqiang.
The article argues that the former is often related to Xi’s rectification of pro-Jiang tycoons in recent years on the grounds that the country is advancing and the people are retreating, while the latter is explained by the relevance of Li Keqiang’s economic policy statements, which he is apparently reluctant to endorse for Xi’s line across the board.
The article also points out that from the history of the Soviet Union and the Chinese Communist Party, the death and illness of leaders have often led to large-scale power struggles and political crises.
For example, before Lenin’s death, there were concerns that Stalin’s ambition and desire for power would create political struggles and a major purge in the Soviet Communist Party. This was eventually the case. The subsequent deaths of a series of leaders disrupted the succession plan of the Soviet Communist Party, which unexpectedly led to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.
On the Chinese Communist Party side, there were already various political movements of power struggles in Mao’s later years. After Zhou Enlai’s death because of the commemorative activities initiated by the masses in Tiananmen Square, the powers-that-be also led to the downfall of Deng Xiaoping in addition to the forceful suppression. Finally, the ambitions of the Gang of Four to seize power became even more aggressive after Mao’s death in 1976, eventually ending in the arrests that led to what the Chinese Communist Party called “rectification of the chaos” in cooperation with Hua Guofeng, Ye Jianying and Wang Dongxing.
Zhang Yushao’s article concludes that while the rumors of Xi’s critical illness are certainly rumors, it is hard to rule out that they are also a way for Zhongnanhai to “lure the snake out of the hole” to see if anyone is tempted to make collusive deployments or paranoid comments about the central government when the news spreads, and to settle scores later when the situation becomes clear. The reason for this is that Xi Jinping is probably following the example of Mao Zedong, who had done a lot of successful power struggles back in the day.
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